The purpose of the study was to develop a predictive model of delayed relief of the inflammatory process in patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw. Objects and methods of research. To achieve this goal a comprehensive examination and treatment of 40 patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw (core group: 24 males and 16 females) were conducted. To assess the sensitivity and specificity of the developed method the database of laboratory studies of 46 patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw, underwent inpatient treatment in the Department of maxillofacial surgery department of Vitebsk regional clinical hospital (the control group), was used. On the day of treatment the patient prior to periosteotomy and tooth extraction befor drug therapy all patients underwent blood sampling from the cubital vein for further laboratory studies. General analysis of blood and immunological analysis of blood was performed by standard methods. The duration of treatment for each patient was determined. Given that in the treatment of acute inflammatory processes are reduced by 5-6 days, the group of respondents was divided into 2 subgroups to determine blood counts, which can be used later as markers of delayed relief of inflammation. Subgroup 1 – the relief of the inflammatory process was completed to 5 days after the start of treatment, subgroup 2 – inflammation was delayed and was completed later than 5 days. Formation models predict different events was performed using logistic regression analysis. The research results and their discussion. There was a statistically significant direct correlation of medium strength between the indices, sedimentation rate, FI, T-killers and delayed relief of acute inflammatory process in patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw (p < 0,05).Between delayed relief of an acute inflammatory process in patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw and the content of T-helper cells revealed a statistically significant inverse correlation of medium strength (p < 0,05). Using logistic regression developed model for prediction of delayed relief of acute inflammatory process in patients with acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaw: у= −5,6−0,12*Тh+0,17*Тк+0,05*FI+0,15*sedimentation rate. Conclusions. Thus, the study developed a predictive model of delayed relief of acute inflammation in acute suppurative odontogenic periostitis of the jaws. The specificity of the method was 81 %, sensitivity − 85 %. This model can be used to predict long course of studied nosology for the purpose of choosing the most effective course of treatment, which necessarily involve tooth extraction, periosteotomy and effective medical therapy to prevent complications and reduce the overall treatment time of patients.

Keywords: prediction, odontogenic periostitis, treatment of inflammation

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