The purpose of the study. The article reflects the issues of the incidence of inflammatory periodontal diseases in the population of Ukraine, methods for predicting exacerbations of diseases for the timely conduct of secondary prevention. It has been established that the high prevalence of periodontal diseases among different groups of the population makes this problem one of the most important problems of modern dentistry. According to WHO experts, 80% of schoolchildren in different countries have periodontal pathology, and among adults it occurs in almost 100% of cases. Modern periodontal prophylaxis should be carried out on the basis of clinical examination of patients. Periodontal prophylaxis should be based on taking into account the identified etiological factors of the disease. Predicting the incidence of periodontitis and predicting the course of the disease is one of the most important problems of periodontology today. Solving forecasting problems in clinical, experimental and preventive medicine is one of the most difficult areas of the activity of doctors of various profiles. Materials and methods. In order to form a risk group, the occurrence of an exacerbation of inflammatory periodontal diseases for the timely implementation of secondary prevention of pathology, an algorithm for the probability of diseases and a mathematical model for predicting the course of the disease were developed. The use of this method made it possible to select 9 signs out of 42 that most significantly affect the prognosis of exacerbation in inflammatory periodontal diseases. Results and discussion. Based on the curves of the dependence of the frequency of the occurrence of exacerbation of inflammatory periodontal diseases on the magnitude of the risk of exacerbation of this pathology, 3 degrees of prognosis probability were determined: low, medium, high. The use of the method of stepwise discriminant analysis made it possible to develop a system for predicting the possibility of an exacerbation of inflammatory periodontal disease and to scientifically substantiate the principles of identifying risk groups for the possibility of exacerbation of inflammatory periodontal diseases in this group of examination. For patients with a risk of exacerbation, dynamic observation was established for one year, before the beginning of which they were divided into 2 groups – the study and control. Patients in the study group underwent preventive treatment, which included the appointment of an appropriate diet, work and rest regimen, correction of the state of the immune system using immunomodulatory drugs, treatment of concomitant diseases and local treatment of inflammatory periodontal diseases. Patients in the control group underwent conventional prophylaxis, which included adherence to general rules: a rational regimen, a balanced diet, rational oral hygiene, and basic sanitary and educational work. Conclusion. As shown by the results of dynamic observation, among patients of the study group, exacerbation of the disease was observed in 14.3% of cases, in patients of the control group – in 42.5%, which corresponded to the likelihood of an exacerbation of the disease by 94.5%

Keywords: forecasting, incidence, prevention, inflammatory periodontal diseases, modern conditions

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